Friday, May 15, 2009

You must be patient if you want to seek your goals


Lets take a look at S&P 500 index. Yesterday we rebounded after sell-off day before. But thats OK. If we take Elliott Wave Principles we actually needed that rebound to continue larger grade decline. From march lows I think that we are witnessing some kind of much more complicated Primary 2 rally than simple a-b-c. One part of that correction may be finished. Now we are going to form another part, and my primary guess is that it will be double zig-zag or abc-x-abc.
At smaller time frame (60 min. chart) you can see where index stopped yesterday: exactly at 50% fibonnacci level (drawn from 05/12 2:30 PM to 05/14 9:30 AM). That's common at corrective patterns, but not the rule. We still can go up to 61.8% or 78.6% or even 100% levels. But modified MACD shows that hourly move is loosing stream. Plus, connecting recently reached lower highs we got downtrend channel, which stopped index yesterday too.
So, we have broken uptrend chennel, we have clear EW waves, we have common fibonnacci levels and moving down MACD indicator. Next move could be iii of 3 wave, which should be powerful and quick, possible with gaps down or something else. A brake below 882.52 would indicate that this correction is resuming and will lead index to lower lows.

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